The Bush Administration, aided by a complicit Democratic Party Congress made a monumental strategic error in pushing NATO membership for Georgia at the last alliance summit. Coming on the heals of American sponsorship of Kosovo’s independence, Bush’s action could only be seen as a provocation. That Bush blatantly antagonized Moscow with no intention of defending Georgia if attacked by Russia constituted the height of irresponsibility. The U.S. financed, armed and trained the Georgian army, led by the political neophyte President Saakashvili. Yet despite explicit warnings from Bush and Sec. of State Rice that Georgia not attack its separatist provinces, Saskshvili couldn’t restrain his propensity for committing atrocities against South Ossetia-thus provoking Russia to arms.

Had France and Germany not resisted Bush’s imprimatur for Georgian inclusion in NATO, the U.S. and Western Europe would at this moment be legally obliged to attack Russian forces in Georgia. Coming at a time when the 26 nation NATO Alliance can’t ante up enough troops to defeat the resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan, NATO would have undoubtedly split over an armed intervention to confront Russia on Georgian soil. Once again, this comedy of errors so typical of the Bush administration’s reckless foreign policy has undermined U.S.-European Union relations and pushed U.S. – Russian relations to a breaking point.

For all President Bush’s rhetoric about punishing the Russians, little if anything will be done in his last five months in office. The U.S. still needs Russia as a partner to check Iran’s nuclear program, police loose nukes and proliferation, not to mention assisting the West in the “war on terror.” For its part, Russia has long since left the West, and while it may cooperate in these areas based on its own national interest, Russia increasingly regards the U.S. as a hostile adversary and will act accordingly.

Going forward Moscow’s political and military posture will become much more aggressive in what it calls its “Near Abroad.” Russia’s harsh warnings to Poland for accepting U.S. missile interceptors and the Ukraine over naval access agreements to Black Sea ports are illustrative of growing tensions between Moscow and the West. Russia will also attempt to accelerate its growing anti-U.S. energy alliance with China in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea basin to push back U.S. moves to consolidate access to energy resources.

While the media speculates about the resumption of the Cold War between the U.S. and Russia, the larger issue at hand is the growing potential for a new geo-political divide whose footprint is slowly but surely being called into existence; A new East-West energy divide that begins in the Middle East with Syria, Iraq and Iran and sweeps eastward through Russia and China, with an ambivalent India wedged in the middle. In the 21st Century “Great Game” in Central Asia, three countries share the majority of the region’s energy resources, namely Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.

The essence of U.S-Russian geo-political contention in Central Asia is twofold: first, control of production of the oil and gas, and second, control of the pipelines which will transfer the oil to the Western markets. It is not insignificant in the grand scheme of the conflict in Georgia that three oil pipelines run through Georgia to the West, all circumventing Russia.

Ultimately, the Georgian crisis will be resolved in the short-run with face saving measures that mollify all sides. Russians troops will remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia at pre-crisis levels as outlined in the French brokered cease fire agreement. Both provinces will formally remain autonomous regions of Georgia, although Moscow will exert greater political, economic and military leverage. Georgia’s prospects of gaining entry into NATO are all but dead in the foreseeable future. The fragrant blooms of Georgia’s Rose Revolution have fallen, leaving only the painful thorns of a divided and war-torn country trapped between the imperial ambitions of Moscow and the West.

Under siege, Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili appealed to the U.S., the UN and the European Union to broker a cease fire. But President Bush could do little more than issue a hollow statement that Russia’s actions “could damage future relations” between the two countries, and arrange for 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq to be airlifted back home. Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, boldly stated that a “ceasefire would not be a solution” and suggested that nothing less than an agreement on the non-use of force against South Ossetia” was negotiable. Indeed, Russia’s goal is move enough troops into both autonomous regions to defeat Georgian forces and establish military dominance to ensure when talks begin on the status of both areas the Russians will hold all the cards.

Fully cognizant that the United States, NATO and the European Union will not send troops to support Georgia, Russia’s aggression brims with confidence. And why not. America’s feeble response is symptomatic of America’s diminished global position and its inability to change any of the facts on the ground in Georgia. The Bush administratrion had touted Georgia’s new democratic republic, pushed its inclusion in the NATO alliance, and supported building a strategic oil pipeline running from Baku on the Caspian Sea through Georgia to Turkey and on to Western Europe; all to the consternation of Russia.

In the present crisis, Russia not only enjoys a strong militarily posture, but maintains a substantial political footprint in both breakaway provinces. After the Soviet Union’s breakup in 1991, South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared their independence from Georgia. Both non-Georgian ethnic provinces held internationally observed ballot referenda that overwhelmingly supported independence. When the United Nations refused to recogize the breakaway republics, the Georgian government reluctantly negotiated regional autonomy agreements with both provinces. Both agreements allowed Russia to maintain peacekeeping troops on the ground along with Georgian and provential forces. Over 80% of the people of both provinces hold Russian passports and their autonomus governments closely identify with Moscow. North Ossetia remains a part of Russia.

Russia’s forceful re-emergence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia constitutes a strategic setback for the United States, and an ominous warning sign that relations between the U.S. and Russia are growing more acute. Russia has been chaffing at the opportunity to push back American advances in its own back yard. The U.S. consolidated former Soviet republics on Russia’s borders into NATO, concluded agreements to deploy nuclear weapons shields in Poland and the Czech Republic, and U.S. advances in the Caucuses and Central Asia to secure energy sources have revived the aura of a Cold War rivalry.

Russia’s global star is on the rise. Gone are the days of its chaotic experiment with democracy. Under Putin’s authoritarian grip, Russia is flush with petro-dollar reserves, its economy and standard of living has risen dramatically and it has reasserted its political muscle internationally. Over the coming weeks, Russia will not likely back off it’s hardline position in Georgia. They have drawn a red line at the Georgia-Ossettia frontier–one the West can only cross at great peril.