Did Israel’s Attack On Syria Foreshadow The Coming Conflict With Iran?

October 21, 2007 – 8:21 pm

U.S.-Iran Peace Project
www.usiranpeace.com

October 21, 2007
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: 860.778.0002

Hartford, Connecticut — Six weeks after Israel launched a surgical bombing attack against a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor, details of the risky military strike that could have thrown an already volatile Middle East into further chaos continue to surface. On September 6, the Israeli Air Force struck a target close to Syria ’s northern border with Turkey that was allegedly a nuclear reactor site built in collaboration with North Korea and designed to process spent fuel.

What happened next was as surprising as the strike itself. The Syrian government made no public statements condemning the attacks until early October when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad acknowledged that Israeli jets dropped bombs on a site he said was “related to the military� but not used for military purposes. Israeli officials and its press corps operated under strict orders of secrecy well after the attack, and U.S. officials who were briefed on Israel ’s strike plans back in July, would only say they were divided on the action based on concerns about its impact on nuclear negotiations with North Korea .

In the normal course of events in the Middle East, Israeli military actions against its Arab neighbors provoke denunciations by Arab governments, mass street demonstrations and burnings of U.S. and Israeli flags. But the Arab street and government capitals from Kuwait to Jordan have been conspicuously quiet. Even Iran , always eager to condemn Israeli adventurism was slow to comment on the attack. This curious if not bizarre set of circumstances has cast an uneasy pall over the Middle East. Speculation about the unusual reactions of all parties concerned has led to frenzied speculation, but clearly, more questions than answers still remain. Only one thing is certain; everyone agrees that the strike on Syria is a serious warning to Iran if it continues to pursue it uranium enrichment program.

While U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials have conceded that the alleged nuclear site was years from completion, Israel’s willingness to risk reprisals after the strike speaks volumes about how tense the situation in the Middle East has grown. Notwithstanding most Arab governments’ disdain directed at Israel as the only nuclear power in the Middle East, the absence of condemnations of Israel’s attack on Syria by Arab regimes is not surprising given that many view the Assad government as an unstable trouble making regime. Syria is neither a major economic or military power in the Middle East , and the thought of Bashar Assad having nuclear capability even 10 years from now is unsettling and destabilizing. The time line for a much feared nuclear arms race in the Middle East would also be vastly accelerated if Syria began development of a nuclear program.

The events surrounding Israel’s attack on Syria spells trouble for Bashar Assad. The “Arab Street” and Arab governments did not rally, even symbolically to his cause. Further, Assad’s inability to bloody Israel’s nose in response to the attack will be interpreted as a sign of weakness across the Middle East and by his detractors inside Syria, especially more militant Sunni Muslims who are the majority in Syria, living under the minority Alawite religious regime of Assad.

As for the Bush Administration, the strikes are more fodder for U.S. preparations to attack Iran. The drumbeat for a military confrontation with Iran is intensifying as the Bush team and a chorus of military hawks call for an executive action against Tehran. From Pakistan to Syria, and all points between, the pressure cooker that is the Middle East is rising to a boil. Israel’s strike against Syria just turned up the heat.

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This article was authored by Webster Brooks, Editor of the U.S.-Iran Peace Project’s website: www.usiranpeace.com. The USIPP advocates for the full restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.