Musharraf’s Phony Election Victory Pushes Pakistan To the Edge of Crisis

U.S. Iran Peace Project
www.usiranpeace.com

ANALYSIS
October 8, 2007
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

General Pervez Musharraf’s victory in Pakistan’s October 6 presidential election has further destabilized the world’s most dangerous nation and ratcheted up tensions in a politically convulsed Middle East. Over the past few months, Musharraf has jailed the popular Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, arrested and deported former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif when he returned to Pakistan, beat and detained thousands of anti-government protesters, and defied the constitution by seeking a third presidential term while serving as Chief of the Army. Thus, it came as no surprise that on Election Day virtually every opposition member of the National Assembly and Senate boycotted the election. Musharraf carried the National Assembly vote 252-2, after 185 legislators resigned. The results from the voting of the four provincial assemblies were virtually the same.

Consistent with President Bush’s crusade to “spread democracy” to the Middle East, the administration’s silence concerning Musharraf’s strong arm tactics was as predictable as it was disgusting. After pumping over $10 billion into Musharraf’s government since 9/11 to secure Pakistan as a strategic partner in the “war on terror,” Pakistan’s Northwestern frontier remains a sanctuary for Osama bin Ladin and al Queda, the Taliban maintains base areas of support to subvert Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the most lethal terrorist attacks launched in Europe since 9/11 can be traced back to Pakistan.

Spreading democracy will remain a low priority on the Bush Administration’s foreign policy agenda for Pakistan. Washington’s overriding concern is preventing Pakistan’s nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of “Muslim radicals,” shutting down the al Queda/Taliban axis and thwarting the outbreak of war between Pakistan and its nuclear rival India over the status of Kashmir. Maintaining Pakistan’s army as the dominant political institution is therefore the strategic imperative driving U.S. support for Musharraf’s dictatorship. Despite significant support among Pakistan’s military and ISI intelligence leaders for the Taliban whom they originally supported to take over Afghanistan, and their deep ties to radical Muslim militias in Kashmir, the U.S. finds itself locked into another incestuous relationship with unreliable allies whose allegiances are tenuous and potentially dangerous.

While the Bush administration had no intention of dumping Musharraf, they hoped he would strike a deal with the growing political opposition to avert a constitutional and political crisis. Instead, Musharaff’s clampdown has pushed the growing lawyer’s movement, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League, and broad sections of Pakistan’s middle-class into a united opposition front. In the short run Musharraf’s fate will likely hinge on cutting a deal with exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who leads the Pakistan Peoples Party, the largest political party in the country.

General Musharraf announced on October 3, that all corruption charges will be dismissed against Bhutto, and that she will be allowed to return to Pakistan without the threat of being jailed. Bhutto is set to return to Pakistan on October 18, but has yet to receive official notification that the corruption charges have been dropped. Musharraf also negotiated an Amnesty Bill with the legislative assembly that will negate current election laws prohibiting the Prime Minister from serving more than two terms. Bhutto served as Prime Minister from 1988-90 and 1993-96. Musharaff also signaled his intention to honor Bhutto’s demand to step down as Chief of the Army by announcing that Lieutenant-General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani will be made a full general and take up the post of vice-chief of the army staff on October 8. Musharraf said he will permanently resign as Chief of the Army on November 15. Presumably, Kiani would assume the reigns of the army.

The frantic maneuvering between Musharraf and Bhutto is not sitting well with the Pakistani people who are demanding genuine governmental reforms, and legitimate democratic elections. Unlike other opposition parties that withdrew from the government, Bhutto’s PPP remained in the government but joined the election boycott. Some members of Bhutto’s own Pakistan Peoples Party have denounced the power sharing arrangement that will leave Musharaff in power as President, with his hand-picked general in charge of the army.
While the country braces for Bhutto’s return, Musharaff still has one more obstacle to clear to remain in power. The Supreme Court must rule on the constitutionality of him serving as President for a third term. The Courts will likely rule in favor of Musharraf. His dismissal could provoke the army to suspend the constitution and place the country under emergency military rule.

For the Bush administration, the Bhutto-Musharraf power sharing arrangement, with all its political intrigue represents the best case scenario for a “transition” to democratic rule. While the elections will not be free or fair, Washington hopes that in the short-run they may marginalize Pakistan’s extremist forces and reduce the growing tensions in society. But the confluence of forces swirling beneath Pakistan’s complex social forces is fraught with danger. Pakistan’s radical Muslims and the mainstream Pakistan Muslim League (N) will continue to demand that the Lahore Declaration and UN resolutions on Kashmir be upheld. The ungovernable Northwestern frontier, the Baluchistan region and their tribal authorities will not be dictated to by Musharraf or Bhutto. Al Queda and Pushtun Taliban forces will not easily be dislodged from their safe havens, and the Pakistan-Afghanistan border will be a hotbed of contention between the two countries as the war in Afghanistan drags on into its fifth year. And after all is said and done, lurking in the shadows is Osama Bin Laden.

In the New Middle East, the United States is embroiled in a shooting war in Iraq with no end in sight. Temperatures are rising as Iran tightens its grip in Iraq and accelerates the development of its nuclear power program. But at the end of the day, Pakistan remains the most explosive powder keg in the region. In the next two months we may find out just how dangerous Pakistan really is.

*** Webster Brooks is Editor-in-Chief of the U.S. Iran Peace Project’s website: www.usiranpeace.com. The organization advocates for the full restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran.