The Russian military invasion of Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s provinces on Thursday, August 7 represented a brazen move to reclaim and incorporate both separatist regions into the Russia federation. Under the guise of coming to South Ossetia and Abkhazia aid from the Georgian government’s atrocities, Moscow quickly moved 10,000 troops into the regions by land and sea. Russian planes bombed the international airport, government buildings and Georgia’s largest seaport in the capital city of Tbilisi. The attacks against Georgia’s economic infrastructure outside the contested provinces and Russia superior air and tank firepower in South Ossetia forced a pullback of all Georgian troops from the breakaway region by Sunday.
Under siege, Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili appealed to the U.S., the UN and the European Union to broker a cease fire. But President Bush could do little more than issue a hollow statement that Russia’s actions “could damage future relations” between the two countries, and arrange for 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq to be airlifted back home. Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, boldly stated that a “ceasefire would not be a solution” and suggested that nothing less than an agreement on the non-use of force against South Ossetia” was negotiable. Indeed, Russia’s goal is move enough troops into both autonomous regions to defeat Georgian forces and establish military dominance to ensure when talks begin on the status of both areas the Russians will hold all the cards.
Fully cognizant that the United States, NATO and the European Union will not send troops to support Georgia, Russia’s aggression brims with confidence. And why not. America’s feeble response is symptomatic of America’s diminished global position and its inability to change any of the facts on the ground in Georgia. The Bush administratrion had touted Georgia’s new democratic republic, pushed its inclusion in the NATO alliance, and supported building a strategic oil pipeline running from Baku on the Caspian Sea through Georgia to Turkey and on to Western Europe; all to the consternation of Russia.
In the present crisis, Russia not only enjoys a strong militarily posture, but maintains a substantial political footprint in both breakaway provinces. After the Soviet Union’s breakup in 1991, South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared their independence from Georgia. Both non-Georgian ethnic provinces held internationally observed ballot referenda that overwhelmingly supported independence. When the United Nations refused to recogize the breakaway republics, the Georgian government reluctantly negotiated regional autonomy agreements with both provinces. Both agreements allowed Russia to maintain peacekeeping troops on the ground along with Georgian and provential forces. Over 80% of the people of both provinces hold Russian passports and their autonomus governments closely identify with Moscow. North Ossetia remains a part of Russia.
Russia’s forceful re-emergence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia constitutes a strategic setback for the United States, and an ominous warning sign that relations between the U.S. and Russia are growing more acute. Russia has been chaffing at the opportunity to push back American advances in its own back yard. The U.S. consolidated former Soviet republics on Russia’s borders into NATO, concluded agreements to deploy nuclear weapons shields in Poland and the Czech Republic, and U.S. advances in the Caucuses and Central Asia to secure energy sources have revived the aura of a Cold War rivalry.
Russia’s global star is on the rise. Gone are the days of its chaotic experiment with democracy. Under Putin’s authoritarian grip, Russia is flush with petro-dollar reserves, its economy and standard of living has risen dramatically and it has reasserted its political muscle internationally. Over the coming weeks, Russia will not likely back off it’s hardline position in Georgia. They have drawn a red line at the Georgia-Ossettia frontier–one the West can only cross at great peril.
Factual. Yet, understated.
Fail.