Where The Crisis in Pakistan Is Heading

November 20, 2007 – 1:33 am

U.S. Iran Peace Project
www.usiranpeace.com

November 20, 2008 — For Immediate Release
ANALYSIS

Pakistan has arrived at the brink of crisis. Developments on the ground are heading toward a decisive showdown between General Pervez Musharraf, emerging opposition movements and the military. As U.S. Iran Peace warned on October 17, Musharraf’s rigged election victory would provoke a political crisis and possibly the imposition of martial law. On November 4, Musharraf declared a state of emergency citing the urgency to fight the Taliban, al Queda and other Muslim extremists. Two weeks later the constitution remains suspended, the Supreme Court has been fired, and television stations are shut down.

While Musharraf’s security forces have jailed thousands of opposition leaders, the Taliban has advanced into the northern valley of Swat. The gravity of the moment in Pakistan is illuminated by the red lights blinking in the White House situation room where U.S. officials are proclaiming “a plan” exists to secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons should the government collapse. Bush administration officials are contacting Pakistani generals to enlist a possible replacement for Musharraf and U.S. intelligence agents are recruiting tribal leaders to fight the Taliban that General Musharraf is supposed to be cracking down on in the state of emergency.

The plan orchestrated by the U.S. and Britain for a “transition to democracy� lead by General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is unraveling. If the U.S. does not exert maximum pressure to persuade Musharraf to step down as President and Chief of the Army, Pakistan’s crisis could spiral out of control.

With mounting pressure from the U.S to lift the state of emergency and increased political turmoil on the Pakistani street, Musharraf announced that parliamentary elections will proceed in January once his new hand-picked Supreme Court rules he can legally serve as President. At that time, Musharraf says he will step down as Chief of the Army. Few people in Pakistan believe the General on either count. Clearly Musharraf’s “state of emergency” had nothing to do with fighting Islamic extremists. Rather it was a desperate measure to re-establish his dictatorship authority and crush the opposition movement with one notable exception; maintaining his tenuous power sharing arrangement with Benazir Bhutto.

As the leader of Pakistan’s largest secular party (the PPP), Benazir Bhutto has been anointed by the United States and Britain to become Pakistan’s next Prime Minister. The Bush administration is gambling that Bhutto will bring Pakistan a much needed democratic face lift and inject a modicum of political stability into a turbulent body-politic. But Musharraf’s crackdown threatens to render their power sharing arrangement useless. Under fire from her own party and other opposition forces for negotiating with Musharraf, Bhutto called for his resignation as President and Chief of the Army on November 12. Bhutto’s shift from negotiating with Musharraf to calling for his resignation is a cynical attempt to hedge her bets against the prospects of becoming politically marginalized. It’s possible that the “pro-democracy” Bhutto (who serves as the Life Chairperson of the PPP) will sing a different song if Musharraf restores the constitution and proceeds with elections soon. Bhutto’s goal is to become Pakistan’s next Prime Minister, and she will resort to any means at her disposal to achieve this end.

The facts on the ground and the alignment of political forces in Pakistan are changing on a daily basis. Simply put, its crunch time and something has to give soon. Looking ahead, there are three major possibilities that could unfold over the next month:

Scenario No. 1
- The new Supreme Court rules Musharraf can hold office as President.
- Musharraf immediately steps down as Chief of the Army and re-commits to holding
elections in January.
- Musharraf receives pledge from Bhutto and the PPP to participate in elections if
state of emergency is lifted. Bhutto acquiesces.
- Musharraf lifts the state of emergency. Bhutto secures the Prime Minister post,
but leads a fractious and badly divided opposition front in parliament.
- The nation survives the short-term crisis. The threat of Pakistan’s Muslim
extremists joining up with the Taliban/al Queda emerges as a serious challenge.

Scenario No. 2
- The new Supreme Court rules Musharaff can hold office as President.
- The opposition rejects the ruling and demands the state of emergency be lifted.
- Bhutto is forced to support the opposition.
- The Pakistani majority demands Musharraf’s ouster, but he refuses to step down
- Al Queda and the Taliban support the opposition’s call to remove Musharraf.
- Pakistan tilts toward insurrection.
- The U.S. gives the green light to a “friendly” group of generals to replace Musharraf.
- An isolated Musharraf is forced to steps down or is replaced in a bloodless coup.
- The new military leadership pledges to hold elections and lift state of emergency.
- A caretaker government and the military shepherd Pakistan though the elections.
- Moderate and militant Islamic parties win a surprising number of seats in elections

Scenario No. 3
– Musharraf maintains the state of emergency and refuses to step aside as Chief of
the Army.
- The opposition demands Musharraf step down as President and Chief of the Army. - Musharraf cancels the elections.
- Bhutto loses political altitude among the opposition which splits over strategy to
depose Musharraf.
- Pakistan enters into a prolonged and difficult period of low-grade violence,
resistance and political disintegration.
- Al Queda and the Taliban expands their attacks in Pakistan’s large urban centers.
- A group of Army generals removes Musharraf to forestall a collapse of the
government.
- The U.S. helps broker a deal between the opposition and the Army, but Pakistan
remains an extremely fragile country with a growing Muslim extremists threat.

While Pakistan’s future is fraught with danger and uncertainty, events are moving inexorably toward a short-term resolution. While it is difficult to predict the tide of events, its clear that the ability of the U.S. to affect the resolution of Pakistan’s emerging crisis is severely limited. Although Musharraf and Bhutto remain the key players, the genie in the bottle is the Pakistani people whose patience and support for a power sharing arrangement is waning with each passing day. The crisis in Pakistan is going to the next level and the genie is out of the bottle. It cannot be stuffed back in.

**Webster Brooks is the Editor of the U.S.-Iran Peace Project’s website: www.usiranpeace.com. His writings have appeared in numerous newspapers, blogs and on-line journals in the Middle East and in the United States. U.S. Iran-Peace advocates for the full restoration of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran.